The Energy Transition

 

Source: Michael Probst.

The energy transition is best characterized as a process that began with the first use of tools and fire, in other words, this has been among the most relevant processes related to human evolution, making this ongoing event -arguably- the challenge of the century.

Fossil fuels, which make up over 80 % of our current energy consumption worldwide, come from buried organisms such as prehistoric animals and plants that have decomposed over millions of years under pressure and heat from the Earth's crust. The effects of pressure exerted by rocks and the heat from the crust transformed the decaying organic material into fossil fuels. 

This process transformed decaying organic material into fossil fuels, yielding three types: oil (petroleum), coal, and natural gas, which remain the world's primary energy (any naturally occurring or available form of energy) sources.

A pressing question today is:

How can we provide sufficient energy to meet global needs sustainably?

This leads us to define sustainable development as:

''Sustainable Development meets the needs of our current generations without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs''. 

"Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs." This concept, outlined in the 1987 Brundtland Report "Our Common Future", highlights the importance of balancing economic development and environmental stability. 

While the share of oil and coal has been declining steadily, these fuels remain dominant in the energy mix.

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2021.

Fossil fuels have served us well since the Industrial Revolution, producing heat, thermal power and kinetic energy (related to motion), serving in homes, industries and businesses, from transport  to agriculture, and so on; however, this comes with an environmental cost.

Drivers of the Energy Transition:

Referring to past energy transitions, these were mainly driven by multiple factors ranging from the need for higher unit power and a better conversion efficiency, to low-price supply, as well as a significant reduction in environmental impacts.

Today's quest for a decarbonized global society is driven neither by a shortage of resources, nor technical imperatives.  The primary objective is to limit total anthropogenic (human-induced) greenhouse gas emissions, which are the main drivers of global warming.

An increasing awareness of climate change has been the catalyst for a transition toward two critical components: energy efficiency and renewable energy. Achieving this goal requires transitioning to a new and more sustainable global energy system. While the combination of efficiency and renewable has proven effective, much work remains to be done.

This challenge presents an opportunity for each of us to be part of the solution, not only by adopting innovative and environmentally friendly technologies but also by reflecting on and changing our behaviors. Strategies such as reducing waste, reusing resources, recycling, and shifting from a linear to a circular economy are crucial if we aim to preserve the world we live in.

 

Source: BP Energy Outlook 2024.

In 2022, the world used approximately 600 EJ (exajoules) of energy, most of it delivered by oil, gas and coal and lesser amounts by nuclear, hydro and renewables. Today's renewables come from a variety of sources like wind, solar, geothermal, biofuels, biomethane and modern biomass. Assessment of consumption of natural resources and degradation of the environment are two important indicators for performance evaluation of any technology from the viewpoint of sustainable development; then, a critical question arises: 

Will renewables be capable of supplying the global energy demand and replace fossil fuels? 

Historical trends offer valuable insights into the pace at which the energy transition unfolds over time. 

Source: Vaclav Smil, 2014.

Professor Vaclav Smil is regarded as an international authority on the history of energy transitions. He stated  ''...history shows that neither the dominant sources of primary energy, nor the common energy converters can be displaced rapidly and completely in short periods of time.''

If we analyze the trends starting from 1840 to 2012 we can conclude that:

• Each primary energy source that has led global supply has taken about 50 to 60 years to reach the leading position.
• Natural gas is taking longer to reach the 50% global share.
• Global growth of new renewables has been gradual and not rapid as expected.
• Without the introduction of a groundbreaking technology or a significant policy shift that accelerates progress, these modern energy sources may also undergo a slow and gradual transition over time.
• Newer fuels don't replace much of the demand for older fuels, but add to the overall energy supply.

Although the ongoing adoption of renewables worldwide is a testament to the efforts made to reduce the impact of anthropogenic climate change, these technologies are not taking off any faster than fuels (long ago) did. Natural gas and renewables are significantly increasing in the overall energy mix but the ever-increasing demand makes it hard for both to keep up with the current pace. 

TAKEAWAY:

Accelerating the shift to renewables requires reducing overall energy consumption through efficiency improvements. As global demand increases, it becomes harder to meet a significant portion of that demand. Yet, we can all contribute to this transition by altering habits, conserving energy, and promoting sustainable practices; moreover, adaption and mitigation will be essential strategies to address the climate crisis and foster a sustainable future.

REFERENCES:

• ''What we need to know about the pace of decarbonization'', Vaclav Smil, 2020.
• Sustainable Energy, Serdar Celik
• Nag's Power Plant Engineering
• BP Energy Outlook